A view from the front porch of 21 North 15th Street
Submitted by Michael Whitman
For those of you hoping for a repeat of 1989’s Christmas snow – don’t get your hopes up! Here is some useful information concerning the next 24-32 hour period:
The specifics: the National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a Winter Storm Watch that includes the Island. The Watch is in effect for the 24-hour period from 10:00AM this morning through Thursday, Jan. 30 at 10:00am. Please keep current on NWS Watches, Warnings, and Advisories that include the Island here.
What is going on: A cold front entering the region will come into contact with rain that increased overnight. While temperatures are expected to stay just above freezing, bridges and overpasses could become icy if they do drop below 32ºF. There is some possibility that rain or sleet may turn into a very light snow early Thursday morning.
How do we know this?
What follows is a peek at some tools meteorologists use to assist them in determining weather forecasts.
Weather modeling can tell us a lot about upcoming events. Note that models are considered “guidance,” as opposed to “gospel.” There are a number of these models that can help us determine what might occur, and they do not necessarily agree all the time. What will occur will happen as it happens. These are one of several tools that meteorologists use to assist in forecasting.
Let’s take a look at two models that indicate a change-over to some form of frozen precipitation in the area:
Above is the GFS – an American mid-range model that shows the possibility of snow Thursday morning in Nassau County – but not necessarily in Fernandina.
This is the Hi-Res NAM model that indicates a change over to frozen precipitation at 1:00AM Thursday morning.
You can see that while each model indicates a slightly different solution for what will occur early Thursday, it makes since that various weather outlets are forecasting the possibility of sleet and/or snow.
For those of you that appreciate percentages, the following map may prove helpful:
These probabilities are put together by the NWS Weather Prediction Center, and indicate a 50%-60% chance of Freezing Rain Accumulating greater than 0.01 inches on the island. Again, you can see that this warrants some consideration of the weather during the Thursday morning commute.
Why did you show us this?
There is low-to-medium confidence in the forecast, so don’t be overly alarmed nor anxiously anticipating snow. Keep up-to-date with a few different weather outlets as you make your Wednesday night and Thursday morning plans. This will be especially important as if you travel over the bridges on or off the island.
Michael Whitman is a graduate of Fernandina Beach High School and is currently residing in Denver, Colorado. He is the son of local resident Carol Whitman.
Michael is not only a talented photographer, but a talented “weather watcher!” We thank Michael for sharing his time and talents with the Fernandina Observer. Contact information: [email protected]
January 29, 2014 7:11 a.m.