Many voters switching to Republican in Nassau County

Submitted by Suanne Z. Thamm
Reporter – News Analyst
August 8, 2016 1:00 a.m.

The Republicans, who have been the majority party in Nassau County for many years, today hold an even more commanding majority among registered voters. While the Republican ideology is strong in the county, the major gains through party switching are probably more attributable to Florida’s primary system than to the failure of the Democrats to field candidates for important county races.

The numbers

By the time the voter registration books were closed for the August 30^th Primary, the total number of active voters in Nassau County, Florida was 59,591. This number represents an increase of 2,489 over the year beginning August 2015. During that same year, the number of registered Democrats decreased from 14,334 to 13,571 while the number of Republicans increased from 30,757 to 34,265. Numbers for unaffiliated and other affiliations also decreased during that period, with unaffiliated or “no party” registrations dropping from 9,943 to 9,812, and those registered with parties other than Democrat or Republican dropping from 2,068 to 1,943. Adding the new registrations (2,481) to the “lost registrations” for non-Republican voters (1,019), you get a total of 3,499 – just shy of the gain in the number of registered Republicans (3,508).

In a review of party change statistics for the August 2015-July 2016 year among the three largest groups—Democrats, Republicans, and No Party Affiliations (NPA)—there is little activity until January 2016. For each month, Democrats registered net losses ranging from a low of 8 in December 2015 to a high of 376 in July of this year. The same trend was true for NPAs, who showed a net loss of 6 in October 2015 that increased to a net loss of 385 also this past July.

The big gains in registration changes have been the Republicans. Only 199 voters left the Republican Party for another party during the entire year. Their lowest net gain was 26 registered in September 2015; their highest net gain was 784, registered for July.

Other political parties, whose Nassau County numbers are much smaller, also registered losses during the same period.

Superintendent of Schools primary race limited to registered Republicans

Speculation is that one race is responsible for all the Republican gains: the Superintendent of Schools race to replace retiring Superintendent John Ruis.

Among the Republican races, none other has been as well funded, heated and negative as the race for Superintendent of Schools. Under the rules of a Universal Primary, all registered voters could have voted for either of the two Republicans in this race: Janet Adkins or Kathy Burns. But early in the campaign a third party candidate filed to run. And that seems to be the last that anyone has heard from that candidate since she qualified for the election.

Libertarian Candidate Cheryl Reynolds James has neither raised nor spent any money since January 2016. She has provided no biographical information for the Supervisor of Elections website. James reported two separate contributions from a Yulee resident totaling $10.40 in December 2015. The only other contributions were recorded in September 2015, when two women from McClenny and one from Jacksonville provided $890, of which $650 was paid to Raymond Jackson II of Jacksonville for petition collection and $55 to the Supervisor of Elections for 487 petitions.

James has not responded to media inquiries. She was invited to the News Leader’s Candidate Forum, but did not appear. During that candidate forum, the moderator raised questions to Adkins and Burns about James’ candidacy. Adkins claimed there was a lot of loose talk circulating about her connection with James, but that she had never spoken with James. Burns claimed no knowledge. From the information publicly provided it is difficult to conclude that James has any interest in obtaining the Superintendent of Schools office for herself.

Whether Adkins has ever spoken or not to James about her role in the Superintendent race, there are some puzzling threads that would seem to tie the Adkins campaign to James. James provided her address as 11356 Sunowa Springs Trail, Bryceville, FL – 32009. Former Nassau County School Board Member Jim Adams, who this year is running for the position of Republican State Committeeman, also lives on Sunowa Springs Trail in Bryceville. Until recently, Adams also served as Legislative Assistant to Janet Adkins in her role as State Representative. Reliable sources have reported that earlier in the campaign cycle James allegedly was offering Adkins signs to supporters from her Facebook page.

Other primary races limited to registered Republicans

Another heated county race that has been closed to all but Republican voters, this time by the late entry of a write-in candidate, is the Tax Collector contest. Callahan resident John L. McDowell filed to run last month, listing no contributions and no expenses. This means that whether incumbent Tax Collector John Drew or his opponent Carlos Slay wins the Republican primary, that election will not be decided until the November 8 General Election. But maybe not. Since there seems to be a widespread practice of write-in candidates withdrawing, once they have accomplished their mission of locking candidates of other parties (or no party) out of voting in their party primary.

The race for Nassau County Commissioner District 5 has included at one time or another 7 candidates. By the end of qualifying, that field narrowed to three Republicans and one late write-in, Callahan resident Don Tanner, who filed in June and like McDowell, lists no contributions or expenses. This race pits three Republican candidates—Klynt Farmer, Justin Taylor and Joe Zimmerman—against each other in what has been an extremely contentious contest to replace sitting commissioner Walter “Junior” Boatright, who has stepped aside to seek election to the position of Clerk of Circuit Court. Zimmerman, a former Adkins aide, has been criticized for not living in District 5. It should be noted that residency in the district is not required until Election Day.

There is actually one partisan race limited to registered Republicans for the right reason: a Democrat will challenge the primary winner in the November General Election. Coleman Langshaw, the first Democrat to run for a county office in a while, will face off against whichever of the following three candidates wins the Republican primary for District 1 of the Ocean Highway and Port Authority: Ed Coop, Pat Gass and Robert Sturgess.

Problem not limited to Nassau County

There has been a great deal of attention in press throughout the state about what have been termed “sham candidates.” Whether third party or write-in candidates, these candidates appear to have only one purpose: to limit voter participation in what would otherwise be an election open to all registered voters.

The Tampa Bay Times recently reported that 35 candidates have filed as write-in candidates in Florida state senate and house races across the state. They went on to explain that loopholes like this are subverting the intent of the voters who overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment in 1998 that opened primary elections to all voters if there are only candidates from one party running for the seat in a primary election.

“This wink-wink, nod-nod causes people to distrust the process,” Mike Ertel, supervisor of elections in Seminole County told the Times. “It’s gamesmanship. It’s been going on for years, and has to change.”

“People don’t know about it until they are disenfranchised,” Dave Aronberg, the Palm Beach County state attorney who tried as a Democratic state senator to close the loophole told the Times. “It really is the most insidious election scam that’s commonly exploited by our politicians.”

Some Nassau County Republican primaries open to other voters

Although the School Superintendent and Tax Collector races have been limited to registered Republicans, that is not the case with other Republican primaries in the county. All voters may vote in the following Republican primaries: Clerk of Circuit Court, Nassau County Commissioner for Districts 1 and 3; and Ocean Highway and Port Authority District 2.

It will be interesting to see how many registered Republican voters in Nassau County will change their registrations following the August 30^th primary. It will also be interesting to see if our state legislators will assume the responsibility for fixing the current primary system to ensure that all Florida voters have a voice in future elections as intended by the 1998 constitutional amendment.