2014 Primary results within the City of Fernandina Beach: an analysis

Submitted by Suanne Z. Thamm
Reporter – News Analyst
September 9, 2014 1:00 a.m.

Nassau County, Florida, is home to more than 55,000 active, registered voters.  Roughly 20 percent of these voters chose to participate in the August 26 Primary Election that resulted in the election of George Spicer as the new County Commissioner for District 4.   Spicer captured 5,331 votes to defeat incumbent Barry Holloway by 179 votes.  So Spicer won the right to represent all Nassau County voters when only 9.6% of the county’s registered voters voted for him.  There were 634 under votes in the District 4 contest, meaning that 634 people who comprised part of that 20 percent vote turnout cast a blank ballot in that particular race.  How could such a thing have happened?

There is the obvious answer that voters did not like either candidate.  But there is another explanation:  some people thought that because they were not registered Republicans, they could not vote in an election called a “Universal Primary.”  So they voted for other races on their ballot, but left the District 4 race blank.  I have also been told that many of the people who are registered as “NPA”—no party affiliation—or “Other”—did not bother to vote because they did not understand that they could vote in an election called a Universal Primary.  Since the Nassau County Supervisor of Elections does an excellent job of mailing out sample ballots, I’m not sure what more can be done to educate voters on the twists and turns of primary elections.  But this little misunderstanding could have been a factor in Barry Holloway’s loss to George Spicer in the District 4 race.  Regardless, George Spicer won that election and has every right to celebrate his victory.

How did the voting numbers break down for the City of Fernandina Beach?  Were city voters more motivated to vote than county residents?  Did Republicans turn out in greater numbers than Democrats?  Let’s look at some of the results by precinct.  The City of Fernandina Beach voters are divided among three precincts:

101—voting at the MLK Center; 102—voting at the Atlantic Rec Center; and 201—voting at First Baptist Church.  The total of active, registered voters for the city is 9,412, or about 17% of the county’s voters.  By registration, there are 3,077 Democrats (21% of the county’s Democrats), 4,190 Republicans (14% of the county’s Republicans) and 2,118 NPA/Other (about 20% of the similar group for the county as a whole).  In looking at the gross numbers by precinct, keep in mind that all three city precincts are mixed precincts, that is they contain both city and non-city voters.

The table below, with detail provided by the Supervisor of Elections, provides a turn out analysis of exclusively Fernandina Beach city voters by precinct for the 2014 Primary Election:

What, if anything, do these numbers tell us about the city’s voting population?  The most motivated group seemed to be the Republicans, but even with two county commission seats up for grabs, only 32% of the city’s Republicans cared enough to vote.  The newest city voting precinct (201) and Atlantic Avenue Rec Center (Precinct 102) each recorded about a 24% voter turnout, while the turnout at the MLK Center precinct 101 was a poor third at 16.5%.  Precinct 101 is the only city precinct in which registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans.  In round numbers, only 2,200 city voters took advantage of absentee, early or election day voting to cast ballots.  With turn out numbers like these it is no wonder that those who run for election at the county level do not feel political pressure to give high priority to city needs or requests for help.

There will be another election in November.  Registered city voters will all receive the same ballot; no confusion over who can vote in which race.  City elections are non-partisan.  In addition to county, state and national races, there will be four city questions on the ballot:  two to select city commissioners for Groups 2 and 3; the straw ballot for mayor, and a referendum seeking approval to extend city commissioner terms from 3 to four years.

In the Group 2 race, former commissioner Tim Poynter and political newcomer Roy Smith are challenging incumbent commissioner Charlie Corbett.  Political newcomer Robin Lentz is challenging incumbent commissioner and Vice Mayor Sarah Pelican in the Group 3 race.  In the Mayoral straw poll, voters will be asked to express their preference for either incumbent Mayor Ed Boner or incumbent Commissioner Pat Gass.  These candidates, all motivated to serve, do not share the same political philosophy or vision for the city.

Every election is important.  But some are pivotal.  With two commissioner positions up for election this year, it will be crucial for voters to head to the polls armed with facts, not just rumors and “street talk,” as they begin charting the city’s course for the next three years.  At least two candidate forums will be held this fall to highlight the candidates and their positions on important matters that affect our citizens and the future of the city.  There will be much written and said by and about all the candidates.  Voters will have many opportunities to listen to the candidates’ plans to spur economic growth, address infrastructure needs and keep taxes affordable.

But in the final analysis, only those who show up to vote will determine the direction of the city.  Hopefully, you will be one of those people.

Editor’s Note: Suanne Z. Thamm is a native of Chautauqua County, NY, who moved to Fernandina Beach from Alexandria,VA, in 1994. As a long time city resident and city watcher, she provides interesting insight into the many issues that impact our city. We are grateful for Suanne’s many contributions to the Fernandina Observer.