Who are the people who live (and vote) in Fernandina Beach?

Submitted by Suanne Z. Thamm
Reporter – News Analyst
October 3, 2017 10:30 a.m.

Many people who live locally are confused over just what constitutes Fernandina Beach. That is not hard to understand when you look at the irregular boundaries of the city on Amelia Island. Our city grows not just because of population influx, but also due to annexation of properties formerly belonging to the unincorporated part of Amelia Island. Even more confusing to some is the 32034 ZIP code, which includes not only the city of Fernandina Beach and unincorporated Amelia Island, but also much of what we consider to be Yulee on the Nassau County mainland.

The recent National Citizen Survey provided some insight into how residents view the city as a community and a local government with data collected via a scientific sampling of our residents.

But one group that probably understands our city better than we do is the United States Census Bureau, which keeps statistics on population from multiple vantage points.

2010 Census Data

The total city population is just a tad under 12,500, compared to 10,716 in 2000 and 9,241 in 1990. St. Augustine, a neighboring city to the south, has about 2,000 more residents. Its growth has pretty much tracked that of Fernandina Beach. The upward growth trajectory for both cities peaked in 1999 and then dropped off. In 2001, population growth resumed for both cities, with St. Augustine growing at a faster rate.

The last official census was taken in 2010, and the next one will not occur until 2020. But in looking at the 2010 Census data, we can make several observations. More than a fifth of our residents are over 65 years of age (22.3 percent) and more than half are female (52.7 percent). We are a very White city, with 83.4 percent of our residents identifying themselves as “White alone.” Black or African American residents make up 11.7 percent of our city population; Hispanic or Latino residents account for only 5.3 percent.

Roughly 2/3rds of our housing is owner occupied (66.7 percent), and the median value of that housing is $267,800. The median monthly cost for maintaining that housing (with a mortgage) is $1,715; without a mortgage – $681. Median gross rent is $1,126. Total number of housing units: 7,504.

We live among 5,367 households, with 2.18 people per household. Almost all of our residents over 25 years of age are high school graduates (93.3 percent) and 38.3 percent of us hold a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Of those under 65 years of age, 21.3 percent do not have health insurance and 13.5 percent are considered disabled.

A majority of residents over 16 years of age (54.4 percent) are in the civilian labor force, with a majority of those (51.5 percent) being women.

Median household income (in 2015 dollars) was $52,448 with per capita income at $33,032. Our poverty level is 12.4 percent.

2010 population per square mile: 1,031.8.

2017 National Citizens Survey

In reviewing the results of the recently completed National Citizens Survey, it is interesting to look at the profile of the average respondent. Here are a few statistics that help us do that:

• 54 percent of the respondents were female;
• 86 percent self identified as White, while 10 percent identified as Black or African American and 2 percent as Hispanic;
• 80 percent had no children in their households;
• 44 percent were 65 years or older;
• 35 percent claimed an average annual household income of $50,000-$99,999;
• 35 percent said they had lived in the city more than 20 years, while 21 percent said they had lived here 11-20 years;
• 72 percent said they own their own home; 82 percent said they lived in a single family detached house.

The surveys were mailed out in July. Two issues dominated local political discourse that month: waterfront redevelopment and moving forward with the new terminal building at the airport. In August, discussions about the waterfront and the future configuration of the city marina dominated discussion, along with the question of whether there should be limited paid parking in the Centre Street business district.

We don’t know how much the hot button issues influenced the low scores for confidence that the city is moving in the right direction (35 percent) and belief that the city is acting in the best interest of the community (39 percent).

Political profile

The number of Fernandina Beach registered voters has risen along with its population. The table below, compiled from information provided by the Nassau County Supervisor of Elections office, shows voter turnout since 2010 for general and runoff elections.

Fernandina Beach Voter Turnout, 2010-2016

Note that the highest turnout was reflected in Presidential Election years 2012 and 2016. The 2014 election also included county elections for County Commission and School Board.

With the transition of Fernandina Beach elections to coincide with county elections, odd-year city elections will cease after the 2017 election. If past off year elections can be predictive, the 2017 city election for two commission seats will probably attract around 2,000 voters or about 20 percent of those eligible to vote. If a runoff election is required, that will likely attract even fewer voters.

Although city elections are non-partisan, among registered voters Republicans are more likely to vote than Democrats. Participation rates by party alignment for the 2010 to 2016 period are reflected in the table below. Note that those registered as “Other” or “NPA” (No Party Affiliation) account for about 20 percent of the city electorate and have not been included.

Fernandina Beach Voter Turnout by Party Affiliation

Registered Republicans turned out in higher absolute numbers and percentages for all elections in the period covered.

Back to the National Citizens Survey

 Can we draw any conclusions from demographic analysis and voter trends? Are Census data and voting numbers in line with survey results? Maybe and maybe not. Respondents to the recent survey indicated that 91 percent of them vote in local elections. That would seem to be extremely high compared to empirical data. Perhaps the respondents were more aspirational than truthful; or perhaps the survey by chance just selected residents who happen to be more civic minded than the general population.

With such a gap between actual voter turnout and self identified voter turnout, should we rely on the willingness of the respondents to support a dedicated millage or tax levy to:

• Purchase of open space or conservation of land (74% of survey respondents strongly or somewhat supported this item);
• Development of additional outdoor recreational facilities (soccer fields, ball fields, playgrounds) (60% were strongly or somewhat supportive);
• Construction of new public safety facility (police & fire station) (57% were strongly or somewhat supportive).

Other responses to questions in the survey would indicate that our citizens take a more conservative approach to waterfront development with 33 percent of respondents preferring to see the Amelia Riverfront as open space as opposed to 7 percent who would prefer commercial or mixed use.

Without questions on the survey that drill down into the reasons respondents expressed concerns that the city is not moving in the right direction (35 percent) or acting in the best interest of the community (39 percent) it is difficult to suggest ways for the city to respond. Not visionary enough or too visionary? To slow in responding to long-standing problems or spending too much money to solve those problems? Or perhaps dissatisfaction was rooted in more mundane issues that strike close to home like fixing a particular street, taking too long for a permit or horse droppings on the beach.

What does the future hold?

This year – 2017– is the last off year election for seats on the Fernandina Beach City Commission. Starting in 2018, 4-year terms will mean that there will be higher turnout for elections. No longer will candidates be able to count on only 20 percent (or less) or the voters making the effort to vote. Republicans – traditionally more conservative – have voted in larger numbers than Democrats. As more retirees move to Fernandina Beach, that trend will probably continue, unless more affordable housing for younger people and families with children change the composition of the electorate.

Potential state-level changes to increase homestead exemptions will leave local governments scrambling for funds to support essential services without relying on increasing millage rates. Communities will undoubtedly become more aggressive in attempting to recruit new businesses to counter mounting and costly demands of residents for increased and improved public services in terms of streets, parks and public buildings.

The balancing act for local elected officials between satisfying constituents’ demands and fiscal responsibility will require new, creative approaches. They may need to look at service fees in new ways to avoid charges that newcomers are paying more than their fair share of taxes while those who homesteaded 20 or more years ago seem to pay considerably less for the same services.

Whatever direction the city takes will rely heavily on citizen involvement. People often say that in a democracy decisions are made by a majority of the people. Of course, that is not true. Decisions are made by a majority of those who vote—a very different thing.

Editor’s Note: Suanne Z. Thamm is a native of Chautauqua County, NY, who moved to Fernandina Beach from Alexandria,VA, in 1994. As a long time city resident and city watcher, she provides interesting insight into the many issues that impact our city. We are grateful for Suanne’s many contributions to the Fernandina Observer.