Mapping Florida’s Future: Alternative Patterns of Development in 2070

Media Release – 1000 Friends of Florida
September 19, 2016 2:22 p.m.

5ed73b8e-396b-497d-bb98-dc4b27f543f3Moderate projections indicate that by 2070 Florida’s population will reach approximately 33.7 million residents, almost 15 million more people than in 2010. What happens if Florida continues to develop as it has in the past, with development sprawling into rural and agricultural lands? What will our state look like if we choose more compact development patterns closer to existing development and preserve agricultural and conservation lands?

The University of Florida’s GeoPlan Center, the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services and 1000 Friends of Florida have partnered to develop a series of GIS-based state and regional maps to explore alternative scenarios for growth and development.

“Our goal is to generate informed discussion on how our state develops over the next fifty years,” says 1000 Friends President Ryan Smart.

“Florida 2070 clearly shows that what may seem like small conservation and development decisions we make today have significant, long-term ramifications,” continues Communications Director Vivian Young, who coordinated the project on behalf of 1000 Friends.

Cori Hermle, Environmental Consultant with DACS’ Office of Agricultural Water Policy explains, “Florida’s agricultural sector is an important component of our state’s economic base. It is important to start a discussion on how Florida’s future development may impact local resources that are necessary for the continual economic viability of our agricultural operations.”

“The growing power of geographic information systems (GIS) and the extensive data available for Florida allow us to develop complex representations of alternative future scenarios for Florida,” notes Peggy Carr of UF’s GeoPlan Center. “Clearly land is a finite resource and the decisions made about its use need to account for our long term future.”

To explain the mapping project in greater detail, a free public webinar is being held from noon until 1:30 p.m. on Wednesday, September 21. Visit www.1000friendsofflorida.org/webinar for more information and to register. As space is limited, those wishing to participate should sign up soon.

An interactive website at www.1000fof.org/florida2070 provides an overview of the project, recommendations to promote more efficient development patterns, as well as links to interactive state and regional maps, a summary report and a technical report outlining methodology.

Florida 2070 is comprised of a series of statewide and regional baseline maps depicting development and conservation lands in 2010, trend maps showing how Florida will develop if current development patterns continue to 2070, and alternative maps showing the impact of more compact development patterns and greater land conservation.

Using county property appraiser, US Census, and state conservation mapping data, the base map shows 2010 development and conservation patterns. Using the Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research moderate population projection for 2070 as a foundation, the three partners prepared a series of modeling assumptions that guided development placement for a trend scenario that continues existing development patterns, and an alternative scenario that uses more compact patterns of growth.

Founded in 1986, 1000 Friends of Florida is a 501(c)(3) not-for-profit organization that focuses on saving special places and building better communities in one of the fastest growing states in the nation. Visit www.1000friendsofflorida.org for more information on 1000 Friends.

The Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services supports and promotes Florida agriculture, protects the environment, safeguards consumers, and ensures the safety and wholesomeness of food. Our programs and activities are so varied and extensive, they touch the life of just about every Floridian. For more information please visit www.freshfromflorida.com.

Established in 1984, Geoplan is a multidisciplinary GIS laboratory located in the University of Florida’s School of Landscape Architecture and Planning, College of Design, Construction and Planning. It was developed in response to the need for a teaching and research environment for Geographic Information Systems, or GIS. Under its auspices spatial analysis is conducted in support of a broad range of academic disciplines. Additional information is available at www.geoplan.ufl.edu.

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Tim Brewton
Tim Brewton (@guest_47942)
7 years ago

No consideration of sea level rise???