Submitted by Anne H. Oman
Reporter-at-Large
November 21, 2014 1:00 a.m.
Supervisor of Elections
As election officials prepare for the Fernandina Beach City Commission run-off vote on December 9, Nassau County Supervisor of Elections Vicki P. Cannon and her staff are tabulating and analyzing the November 4 vote.
“We’re always in either preparation or recovery mode,” she told the Observer. “In election years, I feel like what a CPA must feel like at tax time.”
Although not all the statistics were available at press time, the data show that of the county’s 55,700 eligible voters, 30,998 – or 55.7 percent – cast ballots. This turnout compares favorably with this year’s national turnout of 36.3 percent.
Turnout by African American voters was slightly lower: 48.3 percent. And only 36.4 percent of eligible Hispanics cast votes.
In the City of Fernandina Beach, 5,756 of the 9,489 eligible voters cast ballots – a turnout of 60.7 percent. Participation by whites was 62.4 percent, while only 49.8 percent of eligible African Americans and 40.6 percent of Hispanics cast votes.
Of all the county residents who voted, 14,410 went to the polls on Election Day. Another 7,900 cast absentee ballots by mail, and another 8,688 participated in early voting.
In the city, 2,608 cast ballots on Election Day. Another 1,117 voted by mail, and 1,606 took advantage of early voting.
Florida is one of 33 states (plus the District of Columbia) where early voting is mandated under state law. In Florida, early voting must begin at least ten days before Election Day and be carried out at least eight hours each day. In addition, all states allow people to cast absentee ballots under certain circumstances, and Florida is one of 27 states that offer “no excuse” absentee voting. Both measures are designed to increase voter participation.
Do they work?
“Early voting helps, but it doesn’t increase participation,” answered Supervisor Cannon. “If we didn’t have early voting, we’d have long lines at the polls, and there would be more pressure on poll workers on Election Day.”
Final figures on the cost of early voting are not yet available, said Ms. Cannon. But the payroll costs for workers at early voting locations is $34,700. Still to be tabulated is the cost of the set up and delivery of equipment, the pick-up of equipment, signage and other expenses.
This conclusion that early voting does not increase turnout is supported by several academic studies. For example, an article published in the January 2014 issue of the American Journal of Political Science argues that “turnout actually declines when early voting is an option.” The authors found that the availability of early voting decreases participation by several percentage points. In both the 2004 and 2008 elections, they wrote, overall turnout declined for each additional day of early voting offered. The reason, they hypothesized, is that “when all election activity is concentrated on a single day, potential voters are given lots of resources for voting. The media cover the election heavily, their coworkers will be wearing ‘I voted’ stickers, friends and neighbors are expected to be at the polls, and churches will offer free rides to polling places. All of this information and social pressure helps to get out the vote on a traditional election day but is diluted during a lengthy early voting period.”
Another study published in October, 2014, in PS: Politics and Political Science, a journal of the American Political Science Association, also concluded that “most early voting options have a negligible or even negative impact on turnout.”
And a study by the Society for Political Methodology focusing on elections in California concluded that “voting by mail does not deliver on the promise of greater participation in general elections.”
Because early voting data is public information it has led to some questionable campaign tactics. Some Florida voters who are registered Republicans received what many considered invasive communications in the lead up to this year’s election.
One county resident, who declined to be identified in print, opened a letter that read:
“ (Name), Why haven’t you voted yet?” and urged her: “Don’t throw away your vote! Your neighbors will know.” The mailer included the names and addresses of some of the woman’s neighbors and indicating whether or not they had voted.
“I couldn’t believe my eyes,” said the local woman. “Why is it your business? It felt wrong, creepy, un-American – it was an invasion of my privacy.”
Similar reactions among voters across Florida have prompted the political action committee that sent the mailer – Citizens for a Better Florida – to step back from its promise/threat to publish the names of non-voters after the election. According to public records, Citizens for a Better Florida is heavily funded by the Florida Realtors Advocacy Committee, and had campaigned for Gov. Rick Scott and other Florida Republicans. The two groups share the same Orlando address. Attempts to contact Citizens for a Better Florida were unsuccessful.
Nassau Supervisor of Elections Vicki Cannon, on being shown the mailer, called it “offensive.”
But, she added, it’s not illegal.
So if blatant peer pressure turns voters off and neither early voting nor voting by mail increases participation, what does work to boost voter turnout?
Two academic studies provide some guidance:
A 2011 study published in Election Law Journal found that convenient Election Day polling places can increase voting by up to 10 percent. And a 2014 study by Demos, a liberal-leaning think tank, found that same-day registration and voting also increases participation by 10 percent. The group holds that same-day registration and voting is especially effective in encouraging voting by minorities. In the 2012 election, 41 percent of North Carolina voters who registered on Election Day were African American, compared to 20 percent of the overall population. And in 2004, voter turnout in same-day states was 12 percent higher than in other states.
Only a few states permit same-day voting, and some have abolished it, citing fear of fraud.
Florida law requires a voter to be registered at least 29 days before voting in an election.
In the upcoming City of Fernandina Beach run-off election, there are no early voting places. Florida law does not require municipalities to have early voting locations. Several thousand mail-in ballots have been requested and sent out. On December 9, voting will take place at three precincts: The Martin Luther King, Jr. Recreation Center, the Atlantic Avenue Recreation Center, and the First Baptist Church.
For information about your precinct location, go to www.votenassau.com.
Editor’s Note: Anne H. Oman relocated to Fernandina Beach from Washington, D.C. Her articles have appeared in The Washington Post, The Washington Star, The Washington Times, Family Circle and other publications.
Excellent article. We need more, not less, voting alternatives. Costs for early voting is cheap at half the price. And the effort to indirectly intimidate voters with PAC funded political flyers simply has no place in a what remains of our civilized society.
There may be research indicating that early voting can drive lower turnout, but what about the aspect of early voting that increases participation? In my case, early voting has allowed me to participate a number of times that I would have otherwise been unable to cast my vote due to my business travel schedule. I feel sure there of plenty of others in my situation as well who cannot always get to the polls on voting day, for a variety of reasons. To me, early voting is an excellent way to make the process more accessible to everyone. What I don’t like about it is the way the media pounces on exit polls from early voting and starts pontificating about how the election will turn out. This is discouraging to some voters who read the media headlines and wonder “why bother” if the election is already determined. In the current environment where elections are won and lost by such narrow margins, every single vote is important. In my case, early voting does increase participation; at least mine.
As for that flyer produced by the Citizens for a Better Florida group calling out names of people who have or have not voted, well, that’s just wrong. I understand it is legal, but just because you can do something, doesn’t mean you should.
I also received a letter indicating that I had not yet voted and that there might be some sort of follow-up letter or call if I did not vote. Creepy and offensive? Yes. Frankly, I don’t see the value or public interest in (1) releasing party affiliation of individual registered voters and (2) releasing information pertaining to whether individuals voted or did not. I also believe that preliminary election results such as how many Democrats, Republicans, etc. have cast votes should not be released until after the poles have closed. People might wrongly assume that all registered Democrats or Republicans vote in certain ways. As Marc mentioned, it might have the unintended effect of skewing voter response one way or another. And last, but not least, kudos to Vicki Cannon, her staff and all of the volunteers for all of their excellent work.
Ms. Cannon has certainly given us every opportunity to vote for the candidate of our choice. The upcoming City of FB election certainly deserves our attention. You have the opportunity to vote for a candidate who is part of the power grabbers, you got rid of one, and a candidate who will do his due diligence and talk to as well as, listen to the voters in FB. Please vote! Don’t let a few elected officials in our county make the decisions for you.
Great comment and true fact by Stumpjumper . I only add : Please Vote on Tuesday, December 9th – This is a run off and usually so low voting takes place. It is an important day and we need a candidate with dedication and visions for this City.