By Chip Ross
Fernandina Beach
City Commissioner
January 26, 2021
As a City Commissioner, I receive many emails each day. I recently received the following e-mail concerning the waterfront plan. The questions were noteworthy. The e-mail stated that:
“We all know of the flooding problem on Front St and the surrounding areas.
I am simply curious as to what the flooding costs the local businesses and the city (on average) each year in repairs, lost revenue, etc. As a citizen, I want to know the data? I want to know how long before the $20mm investment pays off? Does it cost $1 million each year, so the payback (return) is 20 years? Does it cost $5 million each year, with a payback of 4 years?
How can the citizens make a decision without all the data? Notice I said “citizens make a decision”. Never forget that you work for us!
Is this data available? If not, why not? I would truly like to see it.
I’m not for or against the project. How can anyone make an informed decision without all the necessary data?
Thank you,”
I responded:
“I hope you and your family are well. Thank you for e-mail and thoughts.
I am curious where you obtained the $20 million dollar estimate? The total cost of the flood protection for the downtown is at best an educated guess at this point – it may be more or may be less.
As for damages: The recent and current damages from flooding are probably relatively small. Front Street is impassable several days a year. The year-to-year impact is probably small and would not justify the project.
However, the flood protection is being designed to mitigate damage from a 100-year flood event.
What is known is that there is a 2% chance per year of the downtown having significant flooding up to the Post Office [see FEMA flood maps for exact delineation]. I do not believe anyone has calculated how much structural and long-term economic damage such a flood event would cause. I believe it would significantly exceed $20 million.
What is also known is that flooding will impact the operations of the railroad. The Westrock mill uses the railroad as their primary method of shipping their product. Interruption of rail service to the Port and the Westrock mill will have significant economic impact.
Finally, flood insurance premiums continue to rise. If flood insurance becomes unaffordable, many properties in the City will plummet in value. By providing flood protection City residents get an increasing discount helping to insure stable property values and stable tax revenues.
If you have any further questions or concerns please let me know.”
The constituent’s response:
“Thank you for your response, Chip. It is very informative information that I have not seen before. Like I said, I was neither for nor against the effort to help address the flooding, but your information puts me closer in the “we need to do this” camp. I am, however, still concerned about spending a lot of money for something that has but a 10% chance of occurring within the next 5 years.
As for the $20MM, I read it, I believe, in the Newsleader. Actually, I think the number they noted was $16MM – $19MM. I realize it is still only a “best guess”.
Again, thanks for the information”
My response:
“To best of my knowledge the risk is not cumulative but 2% each year, but is a 100% if it happens. That being said, if I told you that you had 2 chances out of hundred of being seriously injured if you participated in a certain activity, would you participate in that activity? Some would, some would not. It depends on your risk tolerance.”
A significant threat to the economies of Nassau County and the City is flooding, significant flood surge, and the continued rise of flood insurance premiums. The City produced 27% and the entire Island produces 60% of the ad valorem tax revenue for Nassau County, Flooding or storm surge, is a particularly dangerous threat to the historic downtown (which rivals the beaches in numbers of visitors each year).
The inability of a prospective buyer to be able to afford flood insurance, which is a mortgage requirement, can drop property values significantly. I have a friend who owned a waterfront property in Georgia. His property’s flood insurance rose to $30,000 per year. He had difficulty selling the property due to the fact that most mortgages require flood insurance for the buyer. He decided to keep the property as a rental and forego the insurance instead of losing money on his property. (Cash buyers can decide if they want to go without insurance.)
On a more positive note, FEMA does reward communities with up to 50% discounts on flood insurance premiums when flood ordinances are enacted and implemented. FEMA also rewards communities with lower premiums when they take protective measures. Risk of flooding and the protection of valuable, economically critical structures is essential to not only maintaining a tax base, but also keeping property values stable on the island. Adequate flood protection and adherence to flood ordinances should be the goal of all island residents who want to be able to sell their properties in the future. Our island’s economy and property values depend on how we prepare to adapt to major flooding events in the future.
Thank you Commissioner Ross for this perspective. Our historic downtown is an invaluable resource to our community, and protecting it for ourselves (and future generations) deserves to be made a priority. I am pleased that the past city commission, as well as the current one, appears to be continuing these efforts and moving the shoreline project forward.
I think it is important to distinguish the riverfront park plan from the more extensive flood protection plan and their related costs. While there are critical elements and costs in the riverfront park plan related to supporting the flood protection plan, the latter needs to cover protection from Crane Island to Fort Clinch. What has been focused on is just a piece of that overall area, but I understand you have to start with your most vulnerable points of flooding. I’m not sure what the elevation change is from the foot of Centre Street to the bottom step of the Old Post Office, but I daresay that should flood waters reach that level it would be Armageddon for the downtown business and residential area and I am not sure any barriers will be sufficient. What is the flood risk to the City’s wastewater processing facility, the airport and water plant, the various components of the mills in addition to the private businesses that drive the downtown economy? Compared to windstorm insurance premiums, national flood insurance is a bargain. It would be interesting to see what the average cost is for such insurance for a property in the historic district and how many property owners have the insurance.
I think most people would consider a 2% risk to be pretty low especially if not involving loss of life and lasting only for a short period of time. The actuarians say the chance of a man getting some form of cancer during their lifetime is 33% and for a woman 50%. Now those are terrible odds.
So what will the $15- or $18- or $20- or $25 million flood protection plan really provide? Difficult questions to answer I know but the engineers should be able to identify the points of mitigation and where the risk still exists.
Chip, the way I read the Nassau County FEMA flood map linked on the City’s website I think you have overstated the flood occurence potential when you state that there is a 2% chance each year of a flood event as far inland on the river side of the island up to the Post Office. The way I read the map and the FEMA codes is the brown colored area is a 0.2% chance which translates to a once in 500 year event (100/0.2 = 500; those pesky decimal points). The blue shaded areas which go primarily just to 2nd Street with some stretching to 3rd Street are the 100 year potential flood areas. Maybe you have updated maps that show something different or I am reading the zone explanations incorrectly.
Interesting stuff…….If this is the case why was our renewal homeowners residential flood insurance premium $576.00 this year up from $432.00 last year? FEMA giving a 50% discount is a crock….unless somewhere someone is “spinning yarn”….again. It’s pay up and shut up time once again. Oh and the very same premium 8 years ago? Half of what it is today. But I’m just another “pesky senior”….who continues to fund this madness.
Flood Insurance premiums becoming unaffordable will decimate local small business activity and property values. Flood insurance is being heavily subsidized even now. The future availability of this insurance at affordable costs in Florida is an ongoing and clouded issue. Most of our politicians don’t want to discuss or touch this third rail. Been through several major hurricanes in Florida over the years, including three impacting Fernandina Beach – we have been lucky. Flood zone preparedness is a prudent way to invest our tax dollars.
Thank you, Chip, for your informative, data driven response. Hopefully, readers see the wisdom in addressing upcoming flood risks.
The $20 million estimate for the resiliency plan is the number in Mike Lednovich’s facebook post of January 20th.