Poll: Florida Republicans favor Donald Trump over Ron DeSantis in 2024

By A.G. Gancarski
FloridaPolitics.com
February 3, 2022

Gender gaps hurt the Governor in the GOP Primary.

In the seemingly unlikely event that Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis went head-to-head in the 2024 Republican presidential Primary, the former President would likely be the choice of Florida voters, according to one new poll.

A survey conducted late last month by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump was the choice of 47% of those surveyed, while DeSantis was preferred by 40% in that hypothetical head-to-head matchup.

A gender gap exists here for the Governor. DeSantis led Trump by 1 percentage point with male voters. Female voters, however, went for Trump 51% to 38%.

Just 176 likely Republican Primary voters were surveyed, so the overall result is inside the margin of error of +/-7.4 %.

But for those who remember how Trump obliterated Marco Rubio in Florida six years ago, the results may be a reminder of the former President’s potency.

Still, other metrics were more positive for DeSantis.

Larger polling including Democrats and independents showed that despite losing in the theoretical Primary to Trump, DeSantis may perform better in a General Election against President Joe Biden.

DeSantis would get 52% of the vote, while Trump would get 47%. Biden got 44% against either Trump or DeSantis.

The polling suggests a gender gap in a hypothetical Biden vs. DeSantis race. Women prefer Biden, 49% to 46%. But DeSantis dominated with male voters with 58% support, a full 20 points over Biden.

The eight-point DeSantis lead is outside the +/-4.4 % margin of error. That survey sampled 500 likely Florida voters.

Pollsters also tested a potential 2024 showdown between DeSantis and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats. DeSantis won that one handily with 53% support, 13 points ahead of Clinton. The poll found 61% of male voters would back DeSantis.

And just as he did against Biden, DeSantis outperformed Trump against Clinton. Trump won the hypothetical 2016 rematch by a smaller margin, 49% to 42%.

The polling also found the Governor well-positioned in his re-election battle no matter which Democrat he faces in November.

DeSantis leads former Gov. Charlie Crist 49% to 43%, with 8% undecided. DeSantis also leads Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried 51% to 40%, with 9% undecided. DeSantis was ahead with independent voters against both candidates.

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DAVID LOTT
DAVID LOTT(@dave-l)
2 years ago

A sample size of 176 can’t be considered statistically reliable and the 7 percentage points margin of error reflects that. So within the margin of error the headline could easily read they would be in a tie. Needs to be a focus on a candidate’s policies and not the candidate although their moral/ethical attributes certainly are a factor.

Bruce Smyk
Bruce Smyk (@guest_63782)
2 years ago

176 people polled? How can that be considered a state-wide poll? It looks like propaganda. With that sampling, I am surprised you even ran this tripe.

Susan Steger
Editor
Member
Susan Steger(@co-editor-2)
2 years ago
Reply to  Bruce Smyk

Bruce,
Yes, there was a small sampling, but the pollster noted because of the small sample the results could be off + or – 7%. Unlike the old days, there are a lot of polls using a small number of samples. Pollster science has come a long way!

Bruce Smyk
Bruce Smyk (@guest_63800)
2 years ago
Reply to  Susan Steger

Susan,
I don’t buy that. 176 people used to reflect the thinking (?) of 5.1 million registered Republicans? Of course, I have trouble understanding how Trump can out-poll a head of lettuce.

Charles Loouk
Trusted Member
Charles Loouk(@charles-loouk)
2 years ago

I would not want Desantis to run in 2024 for President. I am very much enjoying him in FL.

That said – I don’t think Trump should run either. We’re seeing why with Biden. Had Biden run (and won) directly after Obama, he may have done a better job. His mind is not sharp anymore (and that is putting it kindly). I believe that Trump will have the same issues as Biden. At some point, age and time defeat everyone.

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[…] Florida Public Opinion Research Lab survey of the race, 25 points ahead of Trump. Meanwhile, a January survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump was the choice of 47% of those surveyed, while […]

allison leach
allison leach (@guest_67699)
1 year ago

Either one is frightening

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[…] Florida Public Opinion Research Lab survey of the race, 25 points ahead of Trump. Meanwhile, a January survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump was the choice of 47% of those surveyed, while […]

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[…] Florida Public Opinion Research Lab survey of the race, 25 points ahead of Trump. Meanwhile, a January survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump was the choice of 47% of those surveyed, while […]

trackback

[…] a January survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump was the choice of 47% of those surveyed, while […]

trackback

[…] a January survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump was the choice of 47% of those surveyed, while […]

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[…] a January survey by Suffolk University and USA Today found Trump was the choice of 47% of those surveyed, while […]