Florida Department of Health
August 29, 2020
Editor’s Note: There is a total of 629 cases of Coronavirus in Zip Code 32034 an increased of 7 from yesterday.
Nassau County Emergency Management:
Nassau’s epidemiologists have 23 new cases to investigate today. Please answer their phone calls! It is with great sadness that we announce an additional Nassau County resident, a 65-year old male, has succumbed to CoViD-19 infection. This brings the total number of CoViD-19-related deaths among Nassau residents to 19. Our deepest sympathies are extended to the family and loved ones of this gentleman during their time of sorrow.
* Please assume that you carry germs that could make others very sick, or that everyone else has a disease you don’t want to catch or take home to your vulnerable loved ones, and take appropriate precautions.
* Stay more than six feet away from anyone you don’t live with.
* Minimize interactions with the public – when you have to be in public, don’t touch anything and keep your face covered.
* Wash Your Hands Well and Often – use soap and water and lather well for at least 20-30 seconds before rinsing.
* Don’t attend gatherings where physical distance can’t be maintained.
* Don’t touch your face (don’t rub your eyes, nose, or mouth) with unwashed hands.
* Wash Your Hands.
* Stay isolated if you feel sick or have a fever (check your temperature regularly)
* Cover your mouth and nose completely if you cough or sneeze, and then wash your hands.
* Clean all surfaces you (or anyone else) might have touched every day (door handles, counters, phones, remote controls, light switches) – anywhere respiratory droplets (or saliva) could have landed.
* Wash Your Hands.
It would take a resident of Nassau County 2,272 years to reach a probability of “1” when it comes to death by covID according to the most recent data.
The chance of covID death can be calculated by dividing the number of “deaths” (19) by the county population (89,000)
19 / 89,000 = Chance of Death (CoD) = 0.00021
That probability for CoD corresponds to a time span of about 180 days. (The exact date the first Nassau death was recorded was probably about 6 months ago roughly.)
So…..
0.00021 CoD / 180 days = CoD / day based on the 180 day time span
= 0.0000012
There are 365 days in a year.
The CoD for 1 year = (365 days / yr.) * ( 0.0000012 CoD/ day)
= .00044 CoD / yr.
To find number of years to reach a probability of “1” solve the equation below for X.
1 CoD = X years * (0.00044 CoD / yr.)
X = 2,272 years
Keep in mind that if you take the daily probability for each day alone the vast majority of those days the probability of Death by covID is “0.” It is not like people are dying every day. Most days people don’t die.
The time to open things up came a long time ago. Maybe they never should have been shut down in the first place.
Interesting background, Ben.
What about a simple directive: wear a mask! Is Nassau County Emergency Management too timid to say it directly? It will reduce the spread and save lives. It is a public health measure, not a political slogan.
News Flash – The CDC has just quietly admitted that only 6% of “covID deaths” are attributable to covID alone. Why isn’t the media promoting this information? The information below was taken from the CDC website…….
“Comorbidities
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death.”
There is also a recent report in the journal “Annals of Internal Medicine” that asymptomatic patients were, in both relative and absolute terms, unlikely to infect close contacts. This new research suggests the mask mandates are not terribly helpful, other than in a feel good sort of way. Sick folks should stay home, self-isolate, as they should for any infectious disease. And given tihs report and the mask pollution on the streets and sidewalks, the mandate should go away.
One cannot just use averages and simple statistics to predict chances of picking up the virus. There are multiple factors involved. Also, co-morbidity is standard with respiratory diseases, so it is not unusual that only 6% are pure and only COVID. Influenza is very similar, but only has 15k-45k deaths per year, including comorbidity rates, whereas COVID is at 186k. Why is it so hard to accept this is a deadly and contagious disease?
Because it if were not for the media telling us there was a pandemic no one would know about it. That’s one reason
Let’s not forget that reporting of COVID deaths by health care professionals has been financially incentivized, possibly contributing to the large numbers. Dr. Deborah Birx even stated “There are other countries that if you had a pre-existing condition, and let’s say the virus caused you to go to the ICU [intensive care unit] and then have a heart or kidney problem,” she said during a Tuesday news briefing at the White House. “Some countries are recording that as a heart issue or a kidney issue and not a COVID-19 death.
“The intent is … if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that,” she added. Note that she says “with” not from – completely ignoring co-morbidity issues.