Submitted by Suanne Z. Thamm
Reporter – News Analyst
As we recover from the 2015 Fernandina Beach General Election and gear up for the December 8 runoff it is interesting to look at some of the statistics and results from the city’s latest exercise in democracy.
The Fernandina Observer congratulates the candidates winning or heading to the runoff elections: Len Kreger, commissioner-elect, Group 5; and Group 4 run-off contestants Pat Gass and Roy Smith. Credit is also due to those unsuccessful candidates who cared enough about the future of the city to throw their hats into the ring: Jim B. Higginbotham and Jennifer Schriver, Group 4; and Clinch Kavanaugh, Group 5.
Strategically, the decision with the most significant long-term impact for the city was the voters’ approval of Question 1 to increase the term of city commissioners from three to four years, thus bringing their terms into line with those of Nassau County Commissioners and School Board Members. The mayor’s term has also changed from one to two years.
Although the phase-in of the new terms will not be completed until the 2020 election, the elimination of the off-year elections could ultimately lead to greater political stability in the city and larger voter turnout during even-numbered years that hold contests for county, state and federal positions. The city will also save a relatively small amount of money–$13,000—for each eliminated off year election and achieve savings in staff time in the Clerk’s Office.
Voter turnout
According to Vicki Cannon, Nassau County Supervisor of Elections, on November 3 there were 9,809 registered voters in the city of Fernandina Beach, but only 1,983 ballots cast. Of those, ballots, 589 were cast by mail and 1,393 on Election Day. [One provisional ballot was also received.] This means that roughly only one out of every five registered voters exercised their right to vote. So even though there are close to ten thousand registered voters in the city, one thousand votes seem to be sufficient to win an election.
Why the low turnout? Part of the reason can be attributed to the off-year election cycle. City elections attract more voters when they are coupled with state, county and federal elections in even-numbered years.
City voters may have solved that part of the problem by overwhelmingly approving (55%) a ballot measure that will, by 2020, eliminate off year elections with the conversion of commissioner terms to 4 years and the mayoral straw poll vote for a 2-year term, as opposed to the current single year. The first election for a commissioner to serve a 4-year term will occur in November 2016, when the seat currently held by Johnny Miller will be contested. Off-year elections will continue to be held in 2017 and 2019 until all five commission seats can convert to the new four-year term.
The other problem—unfortunately, more difficult to address—is voter apathy. There are myriad reasons for voters not casting ballots ranging from lack of knowledge about the candidates to forgetfulness. Some voters claim that it doesn’t make any difference who wins; others don’t seem to feel vested in this community. This is a serious matter for our community as it faces the challenges of growth, environmental concerns and how to pay for needed or desired civic improvements. As a community Fernandina Beach citizens must find better ways to engage the electorate at large to field candidates who are up to the task of dealing with these challenges and who have the stamina to run and serve as city commissioners.
Runoff election December 8
There will be a runoff election on December 8, 2015 for voters to decide between incumbent commissioner Pat Gass, who garnered 38.05% of the votes cast in the general election and challenger Roy Smith, who came in second with 23.6% of the votes cast. In looking at the results by precinct, Gass handily outpolled her three opponents in all three precincts, while Smith came in second in Precincts 1 and 2, and third in Precinct 3. In that precinct, one vote separated Smith from candidate Jennifer Schriver who placed second.
Historically, voter turnout for runoff elections is lower than for general elections. Because the runoff occurs during the holiday season, voters who might otherwise be traveling or busy with shopping and entertaining should consider requesting a mail ballot from the Supervisor of Elections. This may be done electronically via www.votenassau.com or by calling the Supervisor’s office at (904) 491-7500.
To learn more about these two candidates for the Fernandina Beach Group 4 Commission seat, search the Fernandina Observer website for their press releases and answers to questions posed to them. You may also contact them directly to learn more about their positions or assist in their campaigns.
Pat Gass may be reached at her email [email protected] or (904) 277-7987.
Roy Smith may be reached at his email [email protected] or (904) 432-8601.
Signs, money and election results
There is always a controversy over election signs, with many people hating them and many others saying they are important for understanding where candidates’ support lies. This year it appears that the candidate who got out the most signs earliest in the election cycle was Clinch Kavanaugh. His striking white-on-red signs were reminiscent of the “JEB!” signs used during Jeb Bush’s successful campaigns for Florida governor.
But Kavanaugh lost the Group 5 Fernandina Beach City Commission contest to Len Kreger (45.96% to 54.04%). Kreger had only 50 signs printed in black-and-white. Many people claimed that they never saw a Kreger sign at all.
In the Group 4 race, Gass’ signs came out later than others, again in red-and-white colors. She seemed to win the sign race over Smith, who also opted for black-and-white like Kreger, Schriver who went with red-and-white, and Higginbotham who chose oversized signs in electric orange with lots of black lettering explaining his platform.
It would appear that signs are not as important as message, or the lack thereof, in today’s city elections.
Signs and mailings are major expenses to campaigns. In perusing campaign expense reports (available on the Supervisor of Elections website), it appears that Kavanaugh was the only one to produce a mailing (cost: $2,570.85). Other candidate expenses included advertising, producing palm cards and business cards and supplies. Loans to their campaigns were common among the candidates, meaning that virtually all the campaigns (except Kavanaugh’s) were mostly self-financed.
The chart below shows the relationship between money spent and results. Clinch Kavanaugh, the candidate who to date has reported by far the highest contributions and expenses, lost decisively in the Group 5 general election to Len Kreger, an opponent who spent less than 15 percent as much on his campaign. The picture seems less clear in the Group 4 race, where Gass, with the advantage of incumbency, was able to greatly reduce expenses to achieve recognition among the voters.
The new commissioners will not be seated until the December 15, 2015 Reorganizational Meeting of the Fernandina Beach City Commission (FBCC). During that meeting, the commission will formally elect its new mayor, traditionally the winner of the general election straw poll. At that meeting the mayor also makes committee assignments for the next year, and commissioners reaffirm their support for Charter Officers: City Manager, City Attorney and City Clerk.
In the meantime, please plan to vote in the December 8, 2015 runoff election.
Nice article Suanne. I’m a firm believer in quality over quantity but the voters have spoken (well, 15% of them anyway) and the even year election cycle process will be put into place. While one of my concerns about a major shift in the Commission that may result when 3 of the 5 seats are on the ballot is generally dismissed as unlikely to happen, that is exactly what happened yesterday in the Atlanta suburb of Snellville (where their slogan is “Everybody is Somebody in Snellville) when a block of three commissioners aligned themselves with a mayoral candidate challenger to oust the current mayor and other commissioners who had been in a long power struggle with the City Clerk. Democracy in action and no complaints there, but it does represent a major shift in their local governance.
Apathy is an issue the candidates and the City Clerk definitely need to address although I’m not sure what the City, other organizations and the candidates can do. There is no excuse for someone not to be able to vote with the mail-in ballots, early voting and such.
A very good review with interesting data.
Candidates do not market themselves properly. They should be out in front of the voters explaining who they are and what their positions are. Speaking before organizations, holding “coffee clotches” as we called them in NY. Working the supermarkets on weekends, the farmers market, etc. passing out fliers is more valuable than signs. If there was more activity there would be less apathy. I am surprised Smith did as well because he was invisible to me. If he’s going to beat Gass in the runoff he’s going to have to work harder, be more visible.
Bob, I walked door to door, held several weekly meet and greets, organized bi-monthly beach clean ups, was an invited guest speaker at 7 local meetings, and met with many area business leaders, past commissioners, former mayors, and with city departments. I managed and funded my entire campaign.
I disagree that more activity would have produced less apathy.
What I found interesting and equally disappointing, was that residents were more concerned about irrelevant personal information, such as my address or the name of my degree, than they were about my stance on issues. In fact, the small handful of citizens who wrote on the internet about me, were not issue focused, in fact they were issue deficient; never spoke to me, never called me, would not return my phone calls to them, did not go to any of my meet and greets, advised me to attend commission meetings instead of speaking to me directly, yet they focused and based their information on unchecked and erroneous manipulation of fact.
After being very active in the community, Bob, I surmise that voters don’t turn out because they feel helpless in what they see happening to Fernandina. I know you are aware first hand, that you can speak to commission with great concern backed with fact, and it often appears, based on their voting records, that the information falls on deaf ears.
I have always found voting to be a remarkable privledge and there was a simplicity, a natural elegance about Fernandina that I know my constituents were hoping to better protect.
I am encouraged as 2016 is just around the corner. Just think, a nobody in just 2.5 months came out of the gates and was a few votes shy of securing a run off spot against an incumbant with a strong family name, local presence and unwavering following. I’m excited Bob. Just think what can be done if the young one had had more help….. I guess we may find out in 2016.
Nicely written Ms. Schriver.
I voted for the candidate that had experience serving the city, not one who would learn on the job by listening to the voters and learning while on the job. One should learn at the bottom before trying for the top job with no job experience. Best to have a position on the issues based on service on local committees and boards. One doe not ask for a college degree before learning and earning the degree.
For more than a century a small handful of countries in the world have provided legislation that mandates, on pain of a small fine, that all eligible voters must register and vote in local and national elections. The best known of these are the folks “down under” in Australia. The legislation there was, and still is, controversial, and its opponents argue that mandated voting is an oxymoron in a democracy. What is clear from the polling data is that voter turnout is the highest by percentages of population in the world.
It is instructive here to examine the philosophy known as Consequentialism, which is an ethical theory holding that the consequences of one’s conduct are the ultimate basis for any judgment about the rightness or wrongness of that conduct. Thus, from a consequentialist standpoint, a morally right act (or omission from acting) is one that will produce a good outcome, or consequence. In an extreme form, the idea of consequentialism is commonly encapsulated in the English saying, “the ends justify the means”, meaning that if a goal is morally important enough, any method of achieving it is acceptable.(Wikipedia). In our current fractious political environment, (which might easily be made worse by publicly debating and discussing this concept), one wonders what would happen in our local community if we were to conduct a public debate on the subject